D1 2019-2020 Rankings ??

[De1]

D1 2019-2020 Individual Rankings (updated on 1/27)

Updated after another week of duals and tourneys. Since we are getting close the postseason, I'm going to include the section that each wrestler is in.

106
1. Jayson Flener, Liberty, 9th (Section 2)
2. Damian Moreno, Kofa, 9th (Section 2)
3. Caidan Cole, Boulder Creek, 10th (Section 2)
4. Joey Jarman, Mesa, 9th (Section 4)
5. Daniel Mendoza, Perry, 12th (Section 1)
6. Javier Duran, Cesar Chavez, 12th (Section 4)

Mendoza with a surprising loss to Highland, so I'm switching him and Jarman. Hard to justify moving anyone up over any of these guys IMO.

113
1. Zander Phaturos, Liberty, 10th (Section 2)
2. Julian Ayala, Kofa, 10th (Section 2)
3. Demarko Gomez, Cibola, 10th (Section 2)
4. John Jarman, Mesa, 11th (Section 4)
5. Jaden Galindo, Cesar Chavez, 10th (Section 4)
6. Peyton Anderson, Mesa Mountain View, 11th (Section 4)
7. Michael Welle, Red Mountain, 12th (Section 4)
8. Porter Ray, Desert Ridge, 12th (Section 3)

Anderson with a good week in duals, beating Jarman and Welle, with Jarman defeating Welle handily as well. Jarman/Galindo/Anderson hard to rank because they've all beaten each other, but ranking based on Jarman's performance last year, him having the most dominant win out of the group (a pin over Galindo), and Galindo having 2 victories over Anderson. Also of note is Corrales and Ray from Desert Ridge flopping weights at 113/120.

120
1. Zach Espalin, Chandler, 11th (Section 1)
2. Noah Kasprowicz, Boulder Creek, 11th (Section 2)
3. Roman Provenzano, Liberty, 10th (Section 2)
4. Cesar Avelar, Brophy, 10th (Section 1)
5. Anthony Gonzales, Corona, 12th (Section 3)
6. Gabe Ortiz, Mesa Mountain View, 12th (Section 4)

126
1. Carson Coy, Liberty, 10th (Section 2)
2. Juan Sierra, Cibola, 10th (Section 2)
3. Bryce Bernard, Valley Vista, 12th (Section 3)
4. Cael Figueroa, Highland, 12th (Section 3)
5. Isaiah Valenzuela, Hamilton, 12th (Section 1)
6. Jaxon Rohde, Boulder Creek, 12th (Section 2)

Moving Bernard to 3 with win over Figueroa last week, but I think 3-5 here are all pretty even.

132
1. Andres Avelar, Cesar Chavez, 12th (Section 4)
2. Andrew Correa, Liberty, 12th (Section 2)
3. Tanner Castillo, Red Mountain, 12th (Section 4)
4. Mourece Ramirez, Desert Vista, 11th (Section 3)
5. Preston Ferrell, Hamilton, 12th (Section 1)
6. Gunnar Luke, Mesa Mountain View, 10th (Section 4)
7. Victor Chavez, Cibola, 11th, (Section 2)

Adding Luke after making semis at Peoria and winning the Pack tourney, and Chavez who has made his way down to 132. Also looks like Avelar is going to stay at 132 after barely missing weight and still winning Peoria at 138.

138
1. Tyler Sauter, Liberty, 10th (Section 2)
2. Jonah Muhammad, Hamilton, 11th (Section 1)
3. Ben Torres, Cibola, 12th (Section 2)
4. Mark Prado, Shadow Ridge, 12th (Section 3)
5. Dalton Loyden, Chandler, 9th (Section 1)
6. Denton Hardt, Queen Creek, 12th (Section 3)
7. Kaleb Pool, Tucson, 11th (Section 1)
8. Hugh Sterns, Sandra Day O'Connor, 12th (Section 2)

Torres and Prado both had good weekends defeating Loyden, even though both matches could have gone the other way (close call at end of Prado match, Loyden leading before getting pinned vs Torres). I still think Sauter is the #1 guy here, but anyone 1-8 could put together a good tournament and win it. Will definitely be the most fun weight to watch in a few weeks.

145
1. Zeke Guerrero, Cibola, 12th (Section 2)
2. Edgar Delgado, Liberty, 12th (Section 2)
3. Matthew Andonov, Sandra Day O'Connor, 12th (Section 2)
4. Adam Booth, Mesa Mountain View, 12th (Section 4)
5. Tlayolot Delfin, Dobson, 12th (Section 4)
6. Shane Aguarin, Corona, 12th (Section 3)

Nothing of note, but weigh ins suggest that Blakeman may be dropping to this weight.

152
1. Alfonso Martinez, Desert Vista, 12th (Section 3)
2. Nicholas Steele, Cibola, 11th (Section 2)
3. Anthony Morales, Kofa, 12th (Section 2)
4. Connor Blakeman, Red Mountain, 12th (Section 4)
5. Gage Beaton, Liberty, 12th (Section 2)
6. Chayce Edwards, Tucson, 12th (Section 1)
7. Kalvin Boggs, Queen Creek, 12th (Section 3)

160

1. Kamyn Stonebreaker, Liberty, 12th (Section 2)
2. Giovanni Meza, Cesar Chavez, 12th (Section 4)
3. Sebastian Valencia, Cibola, 12th (Section 2)
4. Jacob Cisneros, Boulder Creek, 11th (Section 2)
5. Caleb Milnes, Perry, 11th (Section 1)
6. Jarrett Huber, Mesa Mountain View, 9th (Section 4)

Most notable thing here is Milnes dropping down from 182 earlier in the year. He had wins over 2 of the top ranked 182 pounders (Pedregon and Dunn) so will probably make some noise down at this weight.

170
1. Preston Cameau, Desert Vista, 12th (Section 3)
2. Freddy Latu, Hamilton, 12th (Section 1)
3. Ikaika Maldonado, Perry, 12th (Section 1)
4. David Sweetman, Brophy, 9th (Section 1)
5. Keaton Steck, Desert Ridge, 12th (Section 3)
6. Nicholas Magri, Liberty (Section 2)

182
1. Matthew Stevenson, Liberty, 12th (Section 2)
2. Makai Obregon, Valley Vista, 12th (Section 3)
3. Wayne Dunn, Mesa Mountain View, 12th (Section 4)
4. Thomas Derr, Brophy, 12th (Section 1)
5. Cesar Pedregon, Red Mountain, 12th (Section 4)
6. Yousef Sadi, Tucson, 12th (Section 1)
I agree with you on Sadi, he gave Stevenson the toughest match he has had all year at Flowing Wells.
Good week for Dunn, with wins over Pedregon and Mark Orlando (Shadow Mountain), who has a win over Derr. There are a handful of people I could put at #6, all who have both some decent wins and some head-scratching losses, but I'm putting Sadi here because I personally think he's the best out of the group from what I've seen.

195
1. Kimball Begay, Mesa Mountain View, 12th (Section 4)
2. Liam Hoffmeyer, Cibola, 11th (Section 2)
3. Ryan Castillo, Hamilton, 12th (Section 1)
4. Preston Arriola, Mesa, 12th (Section 4)
5. Gavin Dodge, Liberty, 10th (Section 2)
6. Bobby Brookins, Red Mountain, 12th (Section 4)
7. Rueben Maldonado, Cesar Chavez, 12th (Section 4)
8. Michael Moreno, Boulder Creek, 12th (Section 2)
9. Christian Bower, Chaparral, 12th (Section 2)

Begay takes the top spot with a win over Hoffmeyer, and Arriola moves down and beat Brookins in his 195 pound debut.

220
1. Luke Padwe, Pinnacle, 12th (Section 2)
2. Nathaniel Deasey, Chandler, 11th (Section 1)
3. David Palosika, Mountain Pointe, 12th (Section 3)
4. William Durbin, Dobson, 10th (Section 4)
5. James Huber, Mesa Mountain View, 11th (Section 4)
6. Jackson Kay, Boulder Creek, 12th (Section 2)
7. Julius Thomas, Red Mountain, 12th (Section 4)
8. Vincente Maestes, Liberty, 12th (Section 2)

285
1. Jacob Moore, Boulder Creek, 11th (Section 2)
2. Alex Edjourian, Perry, 12th (Section 1)
3. Dante Smith, Desert Ridge, 12th (Section 3)
4. Gregory Down, Cesar Chavez, 12th (Section 4)
5. Frank Thompson, Liberty, 12th (Section 2)
6. Carson McNutt, Shadow Ridge, 11th (Section 3)

I agree with you on Sadi, he gave Stevenson the toughest match I've seen him wrestle all year at Flowing Wells.

 

[jfingd]

 

[homerdindon]

Thanks for sharing, it's definitely interesting to see a strictly numbers-based ordering of guys...I would love to see their magical formula, but this just illustrates that it's impossible to do rankings just based on some weird algorithm and without using common sense. Plenty more examples, but I can't see any way that Ray can be ranked above Anderson at 113 when Anderson has a better win percentage and beat him head to head. Some people at wrong weights, people who aren't even the starter on their team, and even someone I haven't heard of which is hard to pull off haha. Would also be interesting to see a Coy/Rogers state final

I wonder if this is the same formula that Track uses for the "common opponents" seeding criteria at state (hope not).

 

[AndrewG]

Some more info on that formula


RankWrestlers is a subscription-based website. For $25 / year, you can see all the ranking information in every state. If you try it out for a year and decide not to renew, there is no automatic renewal. The match information is taken directly from TrackWrestling. Most states / coaches are very good at providing most of the match information to TrackWrestling. You are entitled to a one-time one hour free trial to see how well the records are updated in your area before you sign up for a subscription.


Obviously not all wins / losses are equal, so just comparing a wrestler's win percentage does not give an accurate indication of their performance. RankWrestlers considers multiple factors when ranking the wrestlers. All wins and losses are adjusted according to the type of win and the quality of the opponent. The average of the three highest adjusted win percentages of opponents that the wrestler defeated is listed under the column "3 best." A column title "H2H" makes head-to-head adjustments for matches between closely ranked opponents. If a lower ranked wrestler that is within ten percent in the total ranking defeats a higher-ranked wrestler, then the higher-ranked wrestler's ranking is reduced by half the difference and the lower ranked wrestler is raised by half the difference to move the winner of the contest in front of the loser. It is possible to have multiple head-to-head adjustments, though, so a different head-to-head adjustment could possibly leave the losing wrestler in front of the winning wrestler from an earlier adjustment.


The adjusted win percentage and top 3 wins are averaged, and the head-to-head adjustments are applied to determine the total ranking. The ranking will make the biggest improvement when a wrestler defeats tougher opponents, and it will drop more with losses to opponents with lower win percentages. A wrestler's ranking will also change as opponents wrestle more matches, because the opponent's adjusted win percentage is continuously updated throughout the entire season (as their record becomes more indicative of their strength), and the new opponent win percentages are applied to the wrestler's earlier wins / losses.


Team rankings are based on individual tournament-type scoring, not dual scoring, so each wrestler ranked in the top 8 is assigned points for the total team score. We are working to develop a dual team ranking at some point in the future as well.

 

[homerdindon]

I appreciate the explanation, makes a little more sense. I'm the biggest math dork in the world so I appreciate a numbers-based look on things. Obviously a big thing that can't really be accounted for is that Track results aren't fully reliable, as many coaches don't enter things until the end of the season or at all in some cases. That's another topic though.

There just has to be something that isn't being factored in or miscalculated. For example, let's look at 170...Sanchez has a worse winning percentage than Latu. As you said, that by itself isn't necessarily a fair comparison which is absolutely true. However, Sanchez has only wrestled one highly ranked guy (Maldonado) and was pinned in that match. He has no wins over anyone else of note, and has a loss to someone named Cole Gustafson from Highland. Latu's only losses are to highly ranked guys, and he has wins over Pedregon, Sweetman, Magri, Steck, and Milnes. Tyler Clark over Latu is probably even a better example. His winning percentage is even lower than Sanchez, and he has losses via to Magri and Sweetman, both who lost to Latu. I can't find one win by Clark over a remotely highly ranked opponent.

I have no dog/Latu in this nonexistent fight, I'm just trying to point out the most glaring example of where something must be off. I really like what you're doing and would even be interested in helping to improve things, which is why I'm pointing out that example so maybe something will jump out at you or whoever does the formula being used.

Sadly, you can do all the work in the world to perfect everything, and none of it will matter until coaches are somehow held responsible for entering things into Trackwrestling correctly

 

[FamousLie]

I wonder what happened to Deasey? Injury?

 

[jfingd]

Thanks for sharing, it's definitely interesting to see a strictly numbers-based ordering of guys...I would love to see their magical formula, but this just illustrates that it's impossible to do rankings just based on some weird algorithm and without using common sense. Plenty more examples, but I can't see any way that Ray can be ranked above Anderson at 113 when Anderson has a better win percentage and beat him head to head. Some people at wrong weights, people who aren't even the starter on their team, and even someone I haven't heard of which is hard to pull off haha. Would also be interesting to see a Coy/Rogers state final

I wonder if this is the same formula that Track uses for the "common opponents" seeding criteria at state (hope not).

There's a H2H column (head to head), Anderson is -1.1% in that column. must have lost matches to those above him. The 3 best is also taken into account--meaning your top three wins against tougher opponents. Here's a broader view of the weight class, as well as Ray's expanded record. I think the "Adj%" column probably takes out losses out of weight class. If you look at most of Ray's losses, they're at 120 lbs. There's probably a formula that takes away a portion of those losses, and recalculates win percentage. Who knows.

Locker room material!

 

[homerdindon]

who knows is right...Anderson beat Ray and Jarman, lost twice to Galindo. My 170 example is even harder to figure out. Interesting to look at regardless of how much sense it really makes

 

[Mike Jarman]

Seems like Galindo 113 should have at least 3 losses. The sheet only shows him having 2. According to track he was 5th at Peoria which equals 2 losses plus John Jarman beat him in the dual. That’s 3

 

[QCWC]

Curious if the AIA is monitoring #of weigh ins for wrestlers. From what I understand, wrestlers are allowed 12 weigh ins per season. In the past two weeks I noticed a varsity wrestler, who is a freshman, compete in 2 different freshman tournaments. This wrestler has a very good record, ranked in the state, and already participated in his 12 allowed weigh ins. So those two weigh ins would be #13 and #14, putting him over the limit. So besides this being against the rules, making little sense as to potential risk of injury, and wrestling down in competition, are these "wins" being counted towards his varsity record, which will have an impact on sectional/state seeding? Or is this just another example of rules being broken and everyone looking the other way? This is by no means the kids fault, coaches should know better.

 

[jfingd]

Curious if the AIA is monitoring #of weigh ins for wrestlers. From what I understand, wrestlers are allowed 12 weigh ins per season. In the past two weeks I noticed a varsity wrestler, who is a freshman, compete in 2 different freshman tournaments. This wrestler has a very good record, ranked in the state, and already participated in his 12 allowed weigh ins. So those two weigh ins would be #13 and #14, putting him over the limit. So besides this being against the rules, making little sense as to potential risk of injury, and wrestling down in competition, are these "wins" being counted towards his varsity record, which will have an impact on sectional/state seeding? Or is this just another example of rules being broken and everyone looking the other way? This is by no means the kids fault, coaches should know better.

The only "wins" that count towards seeding for sectionals and state are those registered/entered on Track Wrestling.

If you're talking about Mt. View's "Freshman State" tournament--I'm guessing they're keeping that off the books. As I understand it, there weren't official "weigh in's", coaches were allowed to send their weight sheets into the tournament the night before.

I noticed some varsity guys there as well. I think there should be a more formalized "state tournament" for freshman wrestlers, but that definitely wasn't it. 2 brackets per weight class--with no combined champ.

It's a good tournament for freshmen, and if varsity freshmen choose to crash it, with their coach's blessing, I don't really have a problem with it. They're all freshmen, after all.

As for the AIA implications--that's above my pay grade. Might be a loophole, since the weigh in's are sent in? Who knows.

I do know, however, that the tournament guide specifically says only wins recorded in Track are counted towards seeding.

 

[jfingd]

Well--looks like 145lbs needs to be revisited. (maybe) Anthony Morales, Kofa, wrestled at 145 on Saturday.



Whether he goes there for Sectionals and State--is another story, but we'll see.