D1/2 Team Championship Projections

FamousLie

Well-Known Member
The problem for Chandler is a lot of their studs are at the same weight as Sunnyside's. I predict that Sunnyside puts 6 into the finals and scatters 3 or 4 other placers. Chandler would need to come through in any head to head they have with Sunnyside and hope for Sunnyside to get upset. Cibola could be a spoiler depending on their positions in the brackets. I don't know if they have the horsepower to beat Sunnyside, but if they have the breaks go their way no reason they can't be on top. Still the path to the championship goes through Sunnyside.
 

East Valley

Well-Known Member
The problem for Chandler is a lot of their studs are at the same weight as Sunnyside's. I predict that Sunnyside puts 6 into the finals and scatters 3 or 4 other placers. Chandler would need to come through in any head to head they have with Sunnyside and hope for Sunnyside to get upset. Cibola could be a spoiler depending on their positions in the brackets. I don't know if they have the horsepower to beat Sunnyside, but if they have the breaks go their way no reason they can't be on top. Still the path to the championship goes through Sunnyside.
I believe Cibola does have the horsepower. (So does Chandler) They could do it if they get help from other teams. It's SS's to lose but a lot can happen. Many teams could help influence this. Tucson, Mtn View, Des Ridge, DV & Corona to name a few. It's where they have their studs & like a broken record, it should come down to the big weights.
 

wm201617

Well-Known Member
they will be out before they start wrestling but after weighins and coaches meeting.

It bothers me a bit that all sections not only are not always on the same day( there are like 2 or 3 sectionals today ) but can have different finals start times. I say this because a coach can or could manipulate state brackets for some weight classes if they have done their research and have it onhand and have a finals match AFTER they see who has won some other sections or just knowing another sections best possibles record.

How? Let me give you example. if for instance I had a wrestler that I thought WAS the best and would win state but I know a team at state that I needed to 'steal' a few team points from had a top seeded wrestler or just a wrestler I knew was in the bottom or top of a bracket then I could "medical forfeit" a finals if I knew how the person who I "lost' to at sectionals would be seeded a certain way and thus put my wrestler into whichever side of the bracket I wanted. I can manipulate the semi and maybe get lucky with a qtr finals ( harder because of random draws for 3 and 4) to be where the truely top 2 guys meet instead of the finals where my number 1 guy ( who I had lose on purpose so he isn't seeded top) thus stealing a few points from the other team.

Also, allows me as coach to place my wrestler opposite or in same bracket based on what I thought best for my team or wrestler in either (a) the case of weight classes where a weak weight class in a section compared to other sections produced a better winning % winner because that winner hadn't wrestled anyone or say (b) a section weight class produced a big upset winner ( but bad overall record) that caught someone who would have been seeded 1 or 2.

if I knew my guy couldn't beat the # 1 seed wrestler but had a decent or even or better shot at the 2 or 3 seed but that winning sectionals my guy would be seeded say number 4 and have to see the number 1 but I knew that by medical forfeiting section finals would place that winner at number 4 THUS guaranteeing my guy would be on bottom bracket and see number 2 or 3 instead.

They should release sectional brackets when wrestling starts BUT start each sectional at same time and finals at same times but then close track wreslting bracket info at finals time until all sectionals have been wrestled.

Also there are weight classes at state that often literally have the BEST 2 wrestlers that will end up being seeded 2 and 3 instead of 1 and 2 BECAUSE they only seed the 4 section champs and don't account for % or H2 H wins by #2s and 3s of sections.

They should seed all 4 section#1s as they do now. But somehow there needs to be accountability that allows a more substantive challenge to seeds with low matches wrestled and possibly a Wins over ranked opponents mechanism.

All the above is called "overthinking something" :)
 

East Valley

Well-Known Member
they will be out before they start wrestling but after weighins and coaches meeting.

It bothers me a bit that all sections not only are not always on the same day( there are like 2 or 3 sectionals today ) but can have different finals start times. I say this because a coach can or could manipulate state brackets for some weight classes if they have done their research and have it onhand and have a finals match AFTER they see who has won some other sections or just knowing another sections best possibles record.

How? Let me give you example. if for instance I had a wrestler that I thought WAS the best and would win state but I know a team at state that I needed to 'steal' a few team points from had a top seeded wrestler or just a wrestler I knew was in the bottom or top of a bracket then I could "medical forfeit" a finals if I knew how the person who I "lost' to at sectionals would be seeded a certain way and thus put my wrestler into whichever side of the bracket I wanted. I can manipulate the semi and maybe get lucky with a qtr finals ( harder because of random draws for 3 and 4) to be where the truely top 2 guys meet instead of the finals where my number 1 guy ( who I had lose on purpose so he isn't seeded top) thus stealing a few points from the other team.

Also, allows me as coach to place my wrestler opposite or in same bracket based on what I thought best for my team or wrestler in either (a) the case of weight classes where a weak weight class in a section compared to other sections produced a better winning % winner because that winner hadn't wrestled anyone or say (b) a section weight class produced a big upset winner ( but bad overall record) that caught someone who would have been seeded 1 or 2.

if I knew my guy couldn't beat the # 1 seed wrestler but had a decent or even or better shot at the 2 or 3 seed but that winning sectionals my guy would be seeded say number 4 and have to see the number 1 but I knew that by medical forfeiting section finals would place that winner at number 4 THUS guaranteeing my guy would be on bottom bracket and see number 2 or 3 instead.

They should release sectional brackets when wrestling starts BUT start each sectional at same time and finals at same times but then close track wreslting bracket info at finals time until all sectionals have been wrestled.

Also there are weight classes at state that often literally have the BEST 2 wrestlers that will end up being seeded 2 and 3 instead of 1 and 2 BECAUSE they only seed the 4 section champs and don't account for % or H2 H wins by #2s and 3s of sections.

They should seed all 4 section#1s as they do now. But somehow there needs to be accountability that allows a more substantive challenge to seeds with low matches wrestled and possibly a Wins over ranked opponents mechanism.

All the above is called "overthinking something" :)
Trust me you are not the first to over think all of this!

I agree with what you are saying. What I have found is sadly many teams don't think enough about all of this. The ones that do make the moves & get their kids better placings & their teams. You will see medical ffts at sectionals for some of those reasons. As a parent I would have this all worked out. (Most of us have)

The whole system is flawed. The transfer rules, seeding ect... So you have to play the game within the rules you have. Those that do it best win. We don't like all the rules but as a coach I would figure them out & use them to my advantage.
 

wm201617

Well-Known Member
FYI, maybe they are locking some things down or at least trying. The D4S4 sectional taking place right now is on track and you can see brackets. the D3 sectional taking place right now is locked down BUT you can see team scores as of right now. So I don't know if there is a work around by going into details etc but the brackets themselves are locked down as of right now. I will post if I can find a way to see the indiv match winners and losers
 

wm201617

Well-Known Member
If you look under deadlines on the D3 sectional going right now as we speak the bracket and indiv details are scheduled to be available tomorrow. However that means that right now at that sectional NO ONE is able to use trackwrestling in the audience -- much less parents that cant be there or extended family. I wonder if its oversight or if they did it on purpose. the fact that you can see team scores makes me think they are doing this on purpose.
 

MatMaid

Member
they will be out before they start wrestling but after weighins and coaches meeting.

It bothers me a bit that all sections not only are not always on the same day( there are like 2 or 3 sectionals today ) but can have different finals start times. I say this because a coach can or could manipulate state brackets for some weight classes if they have done their research and have it onhand and have a finals match AFTER they see who has won some other sections or just knowing another sections best possibles record.

How? Let me give you example. if for instance I had a wrestler that I thought WAS the best and would win state but I know a team at state that I needed to 'steal' a few team points from had a top seeded wrestler or just a wrestler I knew was in the bottom or top of a bracket then I could "medical forfeit" a finals if I knew how the person who I "lost' to at sectionals would be seeded a certain way and thus put my wrestler into whichever side of the bracket I wanted. I can manipulate the semi and maybe get lucky with a qtr finals ( harder because of random draws for 3 and 4) to be where the truely top 2 guys meet instead of the finals where my number 1 guy ( who I had lose on purpose so he isn't seeded top) thus stealing a few points from the other team.

Also, allows me as coach to place my wrestler opposite or in same bracket based on what I thought best for my team or wrestler in either (a) the case of weight classes where a weak weight class in a section compared to other sections produced a better winning % winner because that winner hadn't wrestled anyone or say (b) a section weight class produced a big upset winner ( but bad overall record) that caught someone who would have been seeded 1 or 2.

if I knew my guy couldn't beat the # 1 seed wrestler but had a decent or even or better shot at the 2 or 3 seed but that winning sectionals my guy would be seeded say number 4 and have to see the number 1 but I knew that by medical forfeiting section finals would place that winner at number 4 THUS guaranteeing my guy would be on bottom bracket and see number 2 or 3 instead.

They should release sectional brackets when wrestling starts BUT start each sectional at same time and finals at same times but then close track wreslting bracket info at finals time until all sectionals have been wrestled.

Also there are weight classes at state that often literally have the BEST 2 wrestlers that will end up being seeded 2 and 3 instead of 1 and 2 BECAUSE they only seed the 4 section champs and don't account for % or H2 H wins by #2s and 3s of sections.

They should seed all 4 section#1s as they do now. But somehow there needs to be accountability that allows a more substantive challenge to seeds with low matches wrestled and possibly a Wins over ranked opponents mechanism.

All the above is called "overthinking something" :)
Medical forfeits for seeding... I say boo to that.
 

FamousLie

Well-Known Member
I believe Cibola does have the horsepower. (So does Chandler) They could do it if they get help from other teams. It's SS's to lose but a lot can happen. Many teams could help influence this. Tucson, Mtn View, Des Ridge, DV & Corona to name a few. It's where they have their studs & like a broken record, it should come down to the big weights.

If Sunnyside can get points from their bigger guys, like if Rees and Monreal place and pick up some bonus, it's going to be really tough to offset their advantages in the lower weights. My guess is they go 6 into the finals, win 5, and have 3 other places among Wyatt, Mordecai, Rees and Monreal. If they push 7 into the finals it makes things just that much tougher for everybody else. If they have 4 guys at the upper weights place besides their probable finalists, it's lights out. Chandler not off to a good start, Alanis at 113 is on the same side as Ybarra, Covarribius drew the #2 seed in the first round at 120, Bigelow has Rodriguez the #2 seed at 138, 45 Chandler has the #1 seed and Sunnyside drew the #2 seed in the first round, but Chandler's #1 seed is a prime target for an upset. Chandler should outscore Sunnyside at 52, 60 Wyatt could make the finals, but Groves who knows what state of mind he'll be in. Chandler gets a bad draw at 70 againsy Mordecai the #2 seed, Chandler will score more points at 82 since Sunnyside doesn't have anybody, Sunnyside has it at 95 and should score more than Chandler will at 82, Chandler advantage at 220 with #2 seed, and Monreal has a tough opening match, but should score more points then Chandler. So here's my predictions.

106: SS finalist
113: SS finalist
120: SS finalist
126: SS finalist
132: SS finalist
138: SS finalist
145: DNP, 2-4 points
152: DNP, 2-4 points
160: Finalist or 4th place
170: Finalist or 3rd place
182: No points
195: Finalist or 4th/5th place
220: DNP, 2-4 points
285: 5th place

Upsets can happen though, but based on the brackets this is how I see things looking. If everything goes Sunnyside's way, and it very well could, they might put 9 in the finals. Is that likely? No, but if it happened I wouldn't be that surprised. Having those really tough 6 to lead off helps, especially with RBY being a bonus point machine. The pathway for Chandler to win this requires a lot of things to happen that aren't in their control, whereas Sunnyside doesn't require any kind of help or upsets to win. I don't think they'll approach their state record for points scored at state though. I think with Kofa, Cibola, CDS and Chandler taking some points, it'll be interesting to see what happens on the bottom brackets. But the money is on the Sunnyside lead off guys to build a big lead and the upper weight guys to do enough to hold off the other teams horses at the big weights.
 

bayoubadger

Well-Known Member
If Sunnyside can get points from their bigger guys, like if Rees and Monreal place and pick up some bonus, it's going to be really tough to offset their advantages in the lower weights. My guess is they go 6 into the finals, win 5, and have 3 other places among Wyatt, Mordecai, Rees and Monreal. If they push 7 into the finals it makes things just that much tougher for everybody else. If they have 4 guys at the upper weights place besides their probable finalists, it's lights out. Chandler not off to a good start, Alanis at 113 is on the same side as Ybarra, Covarribius drew the #2 seed in the first round at 120, Bigelow has Rodriguez the #2 seed at 138, 45 Chandler has the #1 seed and Sunnyside drew the #2 seed in the first round, but Chandler's #1 seed is a prime target for an upset. Chandler should outscore Sunnyside at 52, 60 Wyatt could make the finals, but Groves who knows what state of mind he'll be in. Chandler gets a bad draw at 70 againsy Mordecai the #2 seed, Chandler will score more points at 82 since Sunnyside doesn't have anybody, Sunnyside has it at 95 and should score more than Chandler will at 82, Chandler advantage at 220 with #2 seed, and Monreal has a tough opening match, but should score more points then Chandler. So here's my predictions.

106: SS finalist
113: SS finalist
120: SS finalist
126: SS finalist
132: SS finalist
138: SS finalist
145: DNP, 2-4 points
152: DNP, 2-4 points
160: Finalist or 4th place
170: Finalist or 3rd place
182: No points
195: Finalist or 4th/5th place
220: DNP, 2-4 points
285: 5th place

Upsets can happen though, but based on the brackets this is how I see things looking. If everything goes Sunnyside's way, and it very well could, they might put 9 in the finals. Is that likely? No, but if it happened I wouldn't be that surprised. Having those really tough 6 to lead off helps, especially with RBY being a bonus point machine. The pathway for Chandler to win this requires a lot of things to happen that aren't in their control, whereas Sunnyside doesn't require any kind of help or upsets to win. I don't think they'll approach their state record for points scored at state though. I think with Kofa, Cibola, CDS and Chandler taking some points, it'll be interesting to see what happens on the bottom brackets. But the money is on the Sunnyside lead off guys to build a big lead and the upper weight guys to do enough to hold off the other teams horses at the big weights.
That is a very thoughtful and objective analysis.
 

East Valley

Well-Known Member
That is a very thoughtful and objective analysis.
If you are a Sunnyside Homer! haha

You do bring up some good points though. Although anything is possible I doubt SS gets 9 in the finals. They have the horses but D1 has some studs they have to go through. Like I said it's SS's to lose & I can't wait to watch it.
 

FamousLie

Well-Known Member
If you are a Sunnyside Homer! haha

You do bring up some good points though. Although anything is possible I doubt SS gets 9 in the finals. They have the horses but D1 has some studs they have to go through. Like I said it's SS's to lose & I can't wait to watch it.

If they did, and that's a very big if, I wouldn't be shocked. Even if they managed it, no way they go 9 for 9. Then I would really be surprised.
 
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