D1 2019-2020 Rankings ??

Discussion in 'Rankings' started by John young, May 7, 2019.

  1. De1

    De1 Member

    I agree with you on Sadi, he gave Stevenson the toughest match I've seen him wrestle all year at Flowing Wells.
     
  2. jfingd

    jfingd Well-Known Member

  3. homerdindon

    homerdindon Well-Known Member

    Thanks for sharing, it's definitely interesting to see a strictly numbers-based ordering of guys...I would love to see their magical formula, but this just illustrates that it's impossible to do rankings just based on some weird algorithm and without using common sense. Plenty more examples, but I can't see any way that Ray can be ranked above Anderson at 113 when Anderson has a better win percentage and beat him head to head. Some people at wrong weights, people who aren't even the starter on their team, and even someone I haven't heard of which is hard to pull off haha. Would also be interesting to see a Coy/Rogers state final :)

    I wonder if this is the same formula that Track uses for the "common opponents" seeding criteria at state (hope not).
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2020
    East Valley likes this.
  4. AndrewG

    AndrewG New Member

    Some more info on that formula


    RankWrestlers is a subscription-based website. For $25 / year, you can see all the ranking information in every state. If you try it out for a year and decide not to renew, there is no automatic renewal. The match information is taken directly from TrackWrestling. Most states / coaches are very good at providing most of the match information to TrackWrestling. You are entitled to a one-time one hour free trial to see how well the records are updated in your area before you sign up for a subscription.


    Obviously not all wins / losses are equal, so just comparing a wrestler's win percentage does not give an accurate indication of their performance. RankWrestlers considers multiple factors when ranking the wrestlers. All wins and losses are adjusted according to the type of win and the quality of the opponent. The average of the three highest adjusted win percentages of opponents that the wrestler defeated is listed under the column "3 best." A column title "H2H" makes head-to-head adjustments for matches between closely ranked opponents. If a lower ranked wrestler that is within ten percent in the total ranking defeats a higher-ranked wrestler, then the higher-ranked wrestler's ranking is reduced by half the difference and the lower ranked wrestler is raised by half the difference to move the winner of the contest in front of the loser. It is possible to have multiple head-to-head adjustments, though, so a different head-to-head adjustment could possibly leave the losing wrestler in front of the winning wrestler from an earlier adjustment.


    The adjusted win percentage and top 3 wins are averaged, and the head-to-head adjustments are applied to determine the total ranking. The ranking will make the biggest improvement when a wrestler defeats tougher opponents, and it will drop more with losses to opponents with lower win percentages. A wrestler's ranking will also change as opponents wrestle more matches, because the opponent's adjusted win percentage is continuously updated throughout the entire season (as their record becomes more indicative of their strength), and the new opponent win percentages are applied to the wrestler's earlier wins / losses.


    Team rankings are based on individual tournament-type scoring, not dual scoring, so each wrestler ranked in the top 8 is assigned points for the total team score. We are working to develop a dual team ranking at some point in the future as well.
     
    homerdindon likes this.
  5. homerdindon

    homerdindon Well-Known Member

    I appreciate the explanation, makes a little more sense. I'm the biggest math dork in the world so I appreciate a numbers-based look on things. Obviously a big thing that can't really be accounted for is that Track results aren't fully reliable, as many coaches don't enter things until the end of the season or at all in some cases. That's another topic though.

    There just has to be something that isn't being factored in or miscalculated. For example, let's look at 170...Sanchez has a worse winning percentage than Latu. As you said, that by itself isn't necessarily a fair comparison which is absolutely true. However, Sanchez has only wrestled one highly ranked guy (Maldonado) and was pinned in that match. He has no wins over anyone else of note, and has a loss to someone named Cole Gustafson from Highland. Latu's only losses are to highly ranked guys, and he has wins over Pedregon, Sweetman, Magri, Steck, and Milnes. Tyler Clark over Latu is probably even a better example. His winning percentage is even lower than Sanchez, and he has losses via to Magri and Sweetman, both who lost to Latu. I can't find one win by Clark over a remotely highly ranked opponent.

    I have no dog/Latu in this nonexistent fight, I'm just trying to point out the most glaring example of where something must be off. I really like what you're doing and would even be interested in helping to improve things, which is why I'm pointing out that example so maybe something will jump out at you or whoever does the formula being used.

    Sadly, you can do all the work in the world to perfect everything, and none of it will matter until coaches are somehow held responsible for entering things into Trackwrestling correctly :(
     
  6. FamousLie

    FamousLie Well-Known Member

    I wonder what happened to Deasey? Injury?
     
  7. jfingd

    jfingd Well-Known Member

    There's a H2H column (head to head), Anderson is -1.1% in that column. must have lost matches to those above him. The 3 best is also taken into account--meaning your top three wins against tougher opponents. Here's a broader view of the weight class, as well as Ray's expanded record. I think the "Adj%" column probably takes out losses out of weight class. If you look at most of Ray's losses, they're at 120 lbs. There's probably a formula that takes away a portion of those losses, and recalculates win percentage. Who knows.

    Locker room material!

    upload_2020-1-30_15-11-39.png
    upload_2020-1-30_15-13-27.png
     
  8. homerdindon

    homerdindon Well-Known Member

    who knows is right...Anderson beat Ray and Jarman, lost twice to Galindo. My 170 example is even harder to figure out. Interesting to look at regardless of how much sense it really makes
     
  9. Mike Jarman

    Mike Jarman Well-Known Member

    Seems like Galindo 113 should have at least 3 losses. The sheet only shows him having 2. According to track he was 5th at Peoria which equals 2 losses plus John Jarman beat him in the dual. That’s 3
     
  10. QCWC

    QCWC Member

    Curious if the AIA is monitoring #of weigh ins for wrestlers. From what I understand, wrestlers are allowed 12 weigh ins per season. In the past two weeks I noticed a varsity wrestler, who is a freshman, compete in 2 different freshman tournaments. This wrestler has a very good record, ranked in the state, and already participated in his 12 allowed weigh ins. So those two weigh ins would be #13 and #14, putting him over the limit. So besides this being against the rules, making little sense as to potential risk of injury, and wrestling down in competition, are these "wins" being counted towards his varsity record, which will have an impact on sectional/state seeding? Or is this just another example of rules being broken and everyone looking the other way? This is by no means the kids fault, coaches should know better.
     
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  11. jfingd

    jfingd Well-Known Member

    The only "wins" that count towards seeding for sectionals and state are those registered/entered on Track Wrestling.

    If you're talking about Mt. View's "Freshman State" tournament--I'm guessing they're keeping that off the books. As I understand it, there weren't official "weigh in's", coaches were allowed to send their weight sheets into the tournament the night before.

    I noticed some varsity guys there as well. I think there should be a more formalized "state tournament" for freshman wrestlers, but that definitely wasn't it. 2 brackets per weight class--with no combined champ.

    It's a good tournament for freshmen, and if varsity freshmen choose to crash it, with their coach's blessing, I don't really have a problem with it. They're all freshmen, after all.

    As for the AIA implications--that's above my pay grade. Might be a loophole, since the weigh in's are sent in? Who knows.

    I do know, however, that the tournament guide specifically says only wins recorded in Track are counted towards seeding.
     
    East Valley likes this.
  12. jfingd

    jfingd Well-Known Member

    Well--looks like 145lbs needs to be revisited. (maybe) Anthony Morales, Kofa, wrestled at 145 on Saturday.

    upload_2020-2-4_16-22-30.png

    Whether he goes there for Sectionals and State--is another story, but we'll see.
     

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